====================================================================== A. WHAT 'REQUESTS' MEAN IN CHILDREN (2024) ====================================================================== Level Seats Enrol Waits Demand Children Events/child Parent & Tot 3120 2516 1268 3784 2391 1.58 Preschool 1 2120 1974 3101 5075 2401 2.11 Preschool 2 1587 1367 858 2225 1349 1.65 Preschool 3 924 820 1243 2063 913 2.26 Preschool 4 324 287 355 642 356 1.80 Preschool 5 204 172 68 240 197 1.22 Swimmer 1 2886 2718 5567 8285 3141 2.64 Swimmer 2 2406 2228 3920 6148 2419 2.54 Swimmer 3 1384 1324 3008 4332 1711 2.53 Swimmer 4 1146 1099 1553 2652 1198 2.21 Swimmer 5 1184 1020 854 1874 977 1.92 Swimmer 6 896 761 405 1166 726 1.61 Swimmer 7 (Rookie) 562 424 91 515 424 1.21 Swimmer 8 (Ranger) 480 293 9 302 292 1.03 Swimmer 9 (Star) 312 195 6 201 180 1.12 Note: 'Children' counts unique coded IDs touching the level (enrolled or waitlisted - the extract does not distinguish). 'Events/child' converts the City's 'requests' language into people. ====================================================================== B. THE PROGRESSION PIPELINE, 2024 (children at each stage) ====================================================================== Parent & Tot 2391 ################################# Preschool 1 2401 ################################## Preschool 2 1349 ################### Preschool 3 913 ############# Preschool 4 356 ##### Preschool 5 197 ### Swimmer 1 3141 ############################################ Swimmer 2 2419 ################################## Swimmer 3 1711 ######################## Swimmer 4 1198 ################# Swimmer 5 977 ############## Swimmer 6 726 ########## Swimmer 7 (Rookie) 424 ###### Swimmer 8 (Ranger) 292 #### Swimmer 9 (Star) 180 ### Bronze Medallion 95 # Bronze Cross 57 # National Lifeguard 48 # Instructor cert (initial) 0 Instructor recert 154 ## Lesson stages: unique children (507). Certification stages: course registrations (505). 'Instructor cert (initial)': the number of initial teaching-certification seats the public could register for. ====================================================================== C. WHERE THE 2023->2025 SEAT GROWTH WENT ====================================================================== (2022 ran under the legacy Red Cross program names and converts to the current levels imperfectly; system-wide, seats grew 16,088 -> 23,841 from 2022 to 2025. Per-level decomposition starts at 2023, the first full Swim for Life year.) Level 2023 2024 2025 chg 23-25 Parent & Tot 1897 3120 2910 +1013 +53% Preschool 1 1784 2120 2260 +476 +27% Preschool 2 1276 1587 1644 +368 +29% Preschool 3 640 924 928 +288 +45% Preschool 4 196 324 283 +87 +44% Preschool 5 92 204 140 +48 +52% Swimmer 1 2200 2886 2902 +702 +32% Swimmer 2 1774 2406 2262 +488 +28% Swimmer 3 1078 1384 1628 +550 +51% Swimmer 4 882 1146 1277 +395 +45% Swimmer 5 718 1184 1248 +530 +74% Swimmer 6 520 896 906 +386 +74% Swimmer 7 (Rookie) 420 562 695 +275 +65% Swimmer 8 (Ranger) 348 480 504 +156 +45% Swimmer 9 (Star) 251 312 324 +73 +29% ====================================================================== D. DEMAND-PROPORTIONAL REALLOCATION (2024, same total seats) ====================================================================== Total seats 19535; total demand events 39504 Unserved demand events, actual mix: 20305 Unserved demand events, demand-prop mix: 19969 (2% lower) Assumes seats are fungible across levels (instructor-hours roughly are; class-size ratios differ modestly by level) and demand stays fixed. This is an upper bound on what pure reallocation buys - the remaining unserved demand requires added capacity, not rearrangement. ====================================================================== E. SEATS PER 100 KINDERGARTNERS: WHAT 'EVERY CHILD THROUGH THREE LEVELS' NEEDS ====================================================================== Kindergarten cohort K = 3,274. Steady state: one cohort must clear each of Swimmer 1, 2, 3 every year, so seats needed per level = K x attempts-per-level. Attempts bands: 1.5 (design target) and 2.5 (measured). Fall share of the year's Swimmer 1 seats (2023-24 average): 27% Measure now per100K need@1.5 need@2.5 met Swimmer 1 seats, whole year (2024) 2,892 88 150 250 35-59% Swimmer 1 seats, whole year (2025) 2,908 89 150 250 36-59% Swimmer 1-3 seats, whole year (2024) 6,694 204 450 750 27-45% Swimmer 1-3 seats, whole year (2025) 6,804 208 450 750 28-46% Swimmer 1 seats, fall term (2025) 540 16 40 67 25-41% Swimmer 1 seats, fall term (2026, 690 at release) 690 21 40 67 31-52% Additional Swimmer 1-3 seats needed per year, on top of 2024's 6,694: 8,039 (at 1.5) to 17,861 (at 2.5); the whole aquatics program offered 23,865 seats in 2025. ADDITIVITY: the need is counted as new seats. Upper levels are held constant - 4,588 Swimmer 4-9 seats in 2024 plus the Patrol, Bronze and National Lifeguard courses - because they are the path by which swimmers become instructors (section B). Filling beginner levels by reallocating from the top would shrink future instructor supply. INSTRUCTOR TIME: Swimmer 1-3 classes used 5,374 contact hours for 6,694 seats in 2024 = 0.80 hours per seat (6 children per class). attempts added seats added hours FTE @1650h part-timers @400h pay @$30+20% x whole program hours 1.5 8,039 6,453 3.9 16 $232,314 1.32 2.5 17,861 14,338 8.7 36 $516,155 1.72 (whole Swimming-prefixed program 2024: 23,312 seats, 19,940 contact hours) FORMAT LEVER: attempts per level ~ 1 / progression rate per attempt. Measured (analyze_format_progression.py, observational, waitlist-blended): weekly 20.1%, intensive 28.1% -> intensives cut attempts by a factor of ~0.72, i.e. from 2.5 to ~1.8; reaching 1.5 needs ~33% per attempt, beyond format alone (placement and no-show fixes).